What is a Safe Bet? What exactly is a bad bet?


I was recently out on the golf course with a friend when I noticed a Gila Woodpecker in a tree. (yes, my golf ball is usually around the trees). “Hey, look, there’s a Gila Woodpecker,” I told my friend. “No, it’s not!” my friend said, as is his wont. You know nothing about birds.” A discussion ensued, and eventually, a wager was made. I photographed the feathered critter using my handy camera phone (I love modern technology). The Amazing fact about 안전놀이터.

When we got home, I pulled out the bird book (we keep a bird book and a reptile book on our back porch because we have a lot of visitors, and I don’t mean human visitors). We compared my photo on the golf course to the one in the book and discovered it was a Gila Woodpecker.

I won the bet, but the real question was whether it was good.

My friend was correct; I know very little about birds. However, a Gila Woodpecker visits my backyard (he likes the hummingbird feeder), so I was already familiar with that bird.

I recognized the woodpecker in the tree because I had seen one similar to it before and had identified it in my bird book. As a result, I believe I made a good bet based on personal knowledge.

The next question is, did my friend win his bet? He knew I wasn’t an expert on birds, and though I don’t know how many there are, I’m pretty sure he had every other bird in the world covered in this bet. (or at least every bird in our region of the country). In other words, let’s pretend for the sake of argument that our region is home to a thousand different bird species. I only had one, while he had nine hundred and ninety-nine. So, in an even money bet, the odds were in his favor.

What does it all mean to you? Well, I’ve read some interesting articles, blogs, and forum discussions recently saying this bet and that bet is not good bets, with little to no substantiation, so I’ll break down two of those bets for you and let you figure out whether they’re good bets or bad bets on your own.

It is commonly agreed upon among craps experts that the “field bet” is a poor wager, while the “place bet” is advantageous. So let’s check out both of them.

The field bet is for the next dice roll and can only be made once. You win if you get a 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, or 12. A win on the 2 pays 2 to 1, a win on the 12 pays 3 to 1, and a win on any other number pays even money, or 1 to 1. The numbers 5, 6, 7, and 8 are wrong. (The payouts may vary by the casino; check the house rules before playing.)

The odds of winning this bet are 44%, given that there are 16 possible outcomes and 20 possible outcomes for losing. So 16 out of every 36 times you roll, you’ll win. That’s in the long run, of course, and the short run is always unpredictable.

This wager has a house edge of 2.8%. If you always wager the same amount ($100.00), you will lose $2.80 every time.

This is determined by dividing the total amount bet by the total amount lost after subtracting the winnings. In case you were confused by that, let me explain it to you. Suppose you bet $1.00 on each outcome.

You will win $19 in the 16 wins, with $1 each on the 3, 4, 9, 10, and 11 (14 ways to make those numbers); $2 on the 2 (one way to make the 2); and $3 on the 12 (one way to make the 12), for a total of $19. You will lose $20 ($1.00 each) throughout the 20 losses. Your net loss is $1.00 ($19 – $20 = $1.00 lost), which you can divide by the total amount bet ($36.00).02777 or 2.8%

Let’s look at the place bet now. The place bet involves choosing one of the “point numbers” (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10) and betting it will be rolled before a 7. We’ll use the number 5 in this example.

So you’re betting that the five will appear before the 7, regardless of the other numbers. This bet pays 7 to 5, so if you win, you will receive $7, while if you lose, you will receive $5.

Because there are four ways to make five and six ways to make a 7, your chances of winning this bet are 4 out of 10 or 40%.

The house edge on this bet is 4%. So let’s break that down by assuming a $5 chance each time.

You will be paid $28 for four wins ($7 x 4 = $28) and $30 for six losses ($5 x 6 = $30), so you will lose $2 out of every $50 bet. (same formula as above) $2 divided by $50 equals.04 or 4%

Let’s review what we’ve learned…

The field bet has a higher chance of winning than a place bet on the 5 (44% vs. 40%).

The house percentage on the field bet is lower than on the place bet (2.8% vs. 4%).

So, what can you draw from these two wagers? So, I’ll return to my bird story!

Understand your game. Know your way around.

David, “tHE bIG pOSSUM” Shippey has been gambling in casinos since 1969, and his favorite game is craps, but he also enjoys blackjack and roulette.

He is not a pro gambler, a card counter, or a casino shill…He is a regular guy who is an author, mentor, and casino gambling expert.

His nickname, THE bIG pOSSUM, is derived from his golf game. Which, by the way, is not very good; he is an 18 handicap (on a good day), which means he shoots in the 90s most of the time and occasionally reaches the century mark. But he has always had the uncanny ability to par or birdie the hole with big money on it and was accused of playing opossum on more than one occasion…the name stuck, and at 6′ 0″ and 235 pounds, it was easy to add “BIG”…hence tHE bIG pOSSUM.

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